The growth rate data for the first quarter (April-June) of the current financial year will be released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) this afternoon. Earlier, the news agency Reuters, in a survey conducted among economists, has told that this time the growth rate can be in the lower range of 15 to 16 percent.
India’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew at 15.2 percent in the last three quarters, which was much higher than a year ago. India’s overall growth rate last fiscal was 4.1 percent. If we talk about April-June, 2021, then the GDP growth rate was 20.1 percent, which was much ahead of the growth rate of April-June quarter during the first wave of Corona epidemic. Economists have forecast a growth rate of 9 per cent to 21.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year. However, the official figures will also be released today at 12 noon.
Growth rate will be behind RBI’s estimate A
Reuters poll has said that this year even though the growth rate is being estimated higher than last year, it may remain behind the RBI’s 16.2 percent estimate. The Reserve Bank has increased the repo rate by 1.40 percent since May, which will also have an impact on economic activities. Some economists are also speculating that the RBI may increase the repo rate by 0.25 percent even further, which is expected to have a further impact on the growth rate.
According to a Reuters poll, inflation is also making economic activity sluggish. With the rise in interest rates, consumer consumption declined sharply under the pressure of inflation. This will have a direct impact on the growth rate, as the increase in food and fuel prices has led to a fall in consumer spending. Talking about participation in economic activities, the share of consumer consumption in this is about 55 percent.
Growth rate will be sluggish in the coming quarters Economists say that the impact of inflation and interest rate will be visible in the coming quarters along with the current quarter, due to which the growth rate can decline significantly. The poll has estimated that India’s growth rate is expected to decline to 6.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, 4.5 per cent in the October-December quarter and 4.2 per cent in the January-March quarter.
The impact of the rupee’s weakness also analysts say that the risk of slowdown in the Indian economy may further increase, because it will see the effect of RBI’s strict monetary policies. The rupee has depreciated nearly 7 per cent against the dollar this year, raising the import bill and making it expensive for consumers and traders to buy imported goods. This will definitely affect the growth of GDP.
